India Braces for an Early and Intense Monsoon

Monsoon watchers have been taken by surprise this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has pegged the southwest monsoon's arrival in Kerala as early as May 25-27, which is remarkable—this hasn’t happened since 2009. Usually, weather models are known for being cautious, but the IMD’s latest outlook goes further, boosting its expected rainfall levels for the 2025 season to a robust 106% of the long-period average. These aren’t just numbers for statisticians—these predictions could shape farming plans, water resource management, and even daily routines in several Indian cities.

It’s not just Kerala feeling the first splashes. Mumbai, notoriously vulnerable to flooding during monsoon season, has already experienced waterlogged streets thanks to an early bout of heavy rain—this even before the official start. Satellite images from May 26 are proof that the season is starting with a bang. But Mumbai’s situation is just the beginning. The IMD has put 31 out of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions—including Delhi, Haryana, and Chandigarh—on alert for above-normal rainfall. For anyone who remembers the scenes of knee-deep water and disrupted commutes, it’s clear that emergency services will have their work cut out for them.

Low-Pressure Systems Drive the Monsoon Surge

So, what’s pushing this early arrival? Meteorologists are pointing at a series of low-pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal. Unlike the drama of cyclones, these systems pack less wind but a lot more steady rain. This year, no cyclones are expected during the monsoon’s start, but that doesn’t mean the weather gets a pass—these low-pressure cells can turbocharge rain clouds across the subcontinent, amplifying the reach and intensity of rainfall.

Another interesting twist: the IMD says the typical bone-dry, scorched days of June might feel less intense this year. The reason is simple—enhanced rainfall will likely keep the mercury in check, translating to fewer heatwave days than usual. That’s a bit of relief, especially for cities used to sweltering temperatures before the rains provide respite.

Regions in northern, central, and eastern India can expect heavier-than-usual downpours, as per the IMD’s regional breakdowns. This includes agricultural belts in central India—which could be both an opportunity and challenge for farmers—and urban sprawls like Delhi and Mumbai, which are already gearing up for traffic jams, waterlogging, and the usual monsoon hustle. Meanwhile, the northeast isn’t left out—the forecast is for normal to above-normal precipitation, meaning places like Assam and Meghalaya will need to keep an eye on landslide risks too.

• Early monsoon in Kerala arrives between May 25-27—the earliest since 2009
• IMD bumps up rainfall forecast to 106% of seasonal average
• 31 out of 36 major subdivisions, including Delhi and Mumbai, will see above-normal rain
• Fewer June heatwaves expected, making for milder pre-monsoon temperatures
• Heavy rainfall will affect key urban and agricultural regions

All of this is more than a simple quirk of the weather. The next few weeks will shape how cities prepare for floods, how farmers plan their crops, and how millions of people navigate the chaos and comfort the monsoon brings each year.